Adjustments In Poker Play

"Making Poker's Most Profitable Adjustments"


1. You don't need to adjust. If you're playing perfectly and your opponents aren't, you profit from the "value" of their mistakes. This means that if both you and your opponents begin by playing perfectly and they stray – by playing too loosely or too tightly - you have the advantage. You don't need to adjust to fare better than you would have. That's a very important theoretical concept, and I'll repeat it. You don't need to adjust at all to profit from opponents' mistakes. Now, sometimes the interaction among three or more players complicates this concept. Mistakes by opponents, while costly to them, may not always benefit you specifically. But when opponents stray from their best strategies, the money they lose goes somewhere - and normally, you'll earn your share, even if you don't adjust. But even though you don't need to adjust, you usually will make much more profit if you do. That's what we're talking about right now.


2. If you don't adjust correctly, you'll lose money. Because you almost certainly will profit from mistakes that your opponents make, you usually are better off stubbornly refusing to adjust your strategy than adjusting incorrectly. "Adjust" implies that you are varying from your normal best poker strategy. You need a solid reason to justify the cost. Remember, when you adjust, you're sacrificing something. We talk a lot about shifting gears and modifying the intensity of your attack. But the main reason you do it is because your opponents are human and will be influenced by it. If they simply will ignore you and play perfectly, randomizing some decisions in accordance with game theory, there's no reason for you to adjust. If under those circumstances you do adjust, you're making a mistake and your opponents will profit. Fortunately, your opponents are influenced by what you say and do. So, you can adjust to manipulate them. Also, because they're human, they don't know how to play poker perfectly. So, you can adjust to take extra advantage of that.


3. "Shifting gears." Changing back and forth between high and low gears can make it very difficult for opponents to correctly respond. Yet, if your opponents stick to their game plans, they may actually gain by your random shifting. This is why it is important to shift gears at the right times for the right reasons. But let's get specific ...


4. When an opponent folds too often on the river, how should you adjust?
Theoretically, you should not ever just bluff more often with your hopeless holdem hands, you should bluff always. Of course, if you do that, there is a chance that your opponent will see the error that he's making and will start calling more often. For that reason - in the real world - you should bluff as much as possible without causing your opponent to correct his mistake. Similarly, if an opponent calls too often on the river, you theoretically should never bluff.


5. Adjusting to early raises. If a tight player raises in early position, adjust by folding the worst of the strong hands with which you would have raised in his position. In other words, if it's a hold'em game, and the worst hand with which you would have raised in his position is KC QD, you should fold rather than call. If a loose player raises in early position, adjust by often reraising with the worst of the strong hands with which you would have raised in his position. In other words, if nobody else has called, you might reraise with that same K-Q offsuit. There's profit in that, even if it doesn't seem like it.


6. What if an opponent has been losing and complaining? Adjust by betting almost all marginally strong hands for value. This opponent is: (1) unlikely to bluff, because he'd rather just let his misery continue in a quest for sympathy (so checking and calling has little value); (2) likely to call (because he doesn't care); and (3) unlikely to raise when he has small advantages (because he believes that he's defeated and doesn't expect to win).


7. Value betting. Do it when you're winning and in command, and seldom do it when you're losing and not in command. Value bets (pushing marginal hands for extra profit) work best against opponents who are intimidated and are not pressing for value in return. When you're a target (often because you're losing and opponents are inspired), value bets don't work. In fact, when you're losing, you often should return to your tightest strategy and wait for the cards to bring you out again.


8. Major tip - and one of the hardest adjustments. Never do anything fancy against deceptive, lively players to your left. These players hold a positional advantage over you to begin with, and they increase it through deception and aggressiveness. You can't get into a long-term creative war with them, because they get to act last most of the time. You occasionally might reraise as a warning, hoping that they'll become more timid in the future. But that's not the main adjustment that you must make. The main adjustment against deceptive, lively players to your left is simple - just check and call more than usual. If you're a regular player handling this any other way, you're probably costing yourself thousands of dollars every year, even in middle-limit games.- Mike Caro

Poker Tells

Best ten poker tells to play holdem like the pro!

Poker Game Advertising

"Advertise In Poker Game"

Opponents want to call. Because most opponents come to games looking for reasons to call, you should think of them as shoppers who are ready to spend their money. When you have a strong hand, think of that hand as a product that you're seeking to sell.


Fine. Now, here's the secret. You will earn a lot more money in the long run if you make opponents want to call you when they are having trouble deciding whether to fold. Sure, if they have reasonable hands, they will call no matter what. That's their nature. But if they have sub-standard hands, they may or may not call. Getting these players holding substandard hands to call you - and know they would not call other players with those same losing hands - is part of the magic of world class play. Just think how much more money you can earn if you can get two such extra calls every hour!


No, don't just nod. Really think about it! Experts talk about the rarest and most skillful players earning two big bets an hour in profit. Some say two small bets an hour is more reasonable. Let's middle it and say that in a $10/$20 game, it's $30 an hour and in a $75/$150 game, it's $225.
That's an excellent achievement, and you need to be extremely capable in many facets of poker to achieve this. Additionally, you need the cooperation of weak opponents. But, listen. That $30 or $225 an hour is their target - the number that top pros strive (and often fail) to achieve after years of practice and study. And here I am flat out telling you that you can get that much, and maybe more, just in extra calls alone!


But, you are only likely to win calls if you have established the right image and advertised correctly. Advertising in poker is simply the art of convincing opponents to call you with very weak hands because they believe you are apt to be bluffing. So the trick is to bluff a lot less often than these opponents believe you do. (This doesn't mean you can't ever bluff successfully, however.)

Advertising effectively earns money. Advertising ineffectively - just for show - can actually cost you money. Make it realistic. Try to make opponents think you are just playing a carefree game when you advertise. If you appear to be advertising, your strategy may backfire, and if it looks out of character, you may even seem ridiculous. I see top pros try to advertise by playing squeaky tight and rarely coming down with a weak hand and making sure every one sees it. But that "did you see this?" strategy just looks phony. Few are conned by it.


It is far better to be playful in your demeanor whether you're in a pot or not. You should be willing to gamble frivolously with break-even hands. You should be a joy to lose to, and joyful when you lose. The attitude I strive for is, "I just don't care." Opponents are much more willing to buy that attitude and not think that they are being conned.


Be fun to lose to. As I've just said, your opponents are less likely to think you're conning them if you're a joy to lose to and you don't seem to mind losing. But, beyond that, they will be much more willing to part with their money if you don't add psychological punishment to their defeats. Be a gracious winner and loser. If they play a poor hand, you can advertise by convincing them you sometimes play the same way (and you've been lucky doing so).


Instead of criticizing a hand that beats me, which is a mistake some pros make, I often say, "Wow! I didn't think you had that. Believe it or not, I won twice with that same hand yesterday. I don't always play it, but I'm surprised it's winning so often. Maybe it's the hand of the month!" Laugh and have fun. Think about how different this attitude is from one that makes your opponents uncomfortable about playing poorly. Also, think about how many extra weak calls you might win from this opponent in the future, just because you've shown you won't be critical of bad play and simply because he likes you!


That's right! Opponents will give you extra calls with borderline hands simply because they like you! But this will only happen if they also think that you are not painful to lose to and that you gamble, too. If you continue to talk about strange plays that you made (but call them good plays), opponents tend to believe you. After all, they've already seen you make these plays.
I get tremendous mileage out of one or two very blatant plays. I like to spread hopeless hands. I want them to be so absurd that players will remember them and giggle with me. If I just play a lot of semi-weak hands, that's not advertising. That's just doing what they do. And they won't notice.


When you master the art of being playful, you can fold and describe ridiculous hands that "almost won," and opponents will think you really had them, because they saw one or two equally silly plays with their own eyes. Mastering this technique is an art form, and you risk seeming forced and phony unless you practice. But, it's worth the effort. At best, you can make a single advertising play and make opponents think you're playing frivolously all the time. This means many bonus calls that build your bankroll.


Don't claim that you bluff a lot. Claim that you don't bluff as much as "everyone says." This has the same effect and is more believable. Be careful when you advertise. Your advertising dollar may be wholly or partially wasted if: (a) not everyone is paying attention; (b) your game is temporarily short handed; (c) you're not going to stay long; (d) your game may break; (e) the game is very loose and seems crazy enough that your advertising may not add that much extra. In these cases, I don't bother advertise.


In tournaments:
Don't advertise if your table will break soon. Do advertise (if at all) just before the limits increase.
Advertising is creative art. You need to practice. The perfect accomplishment is to get opponents to start talking about your plays, so that you don't have to mention them yourself. When this happens, you can profit greatly. Repeating: You should bluff and you should advertise much less often than opponents believe you do. - Mike Caro

Play Poker For Profit

Play Poker For Profit


On the northeast corner of Main and Broadway, in a galaxy far, far away, is a store named Pete's Poker Trinkets. Prices range from $1 to $10. Since most customers buy more than one trinket, the average sale is $17.42, and the average profit above cost and expenses for each sale is $3.03. (By the way, the quality of the trinkets is surprisingly good, and I am recommending Pete's Poker Trinkets to my readers.)


For years, there was one poker item for sale at Pete's that had a higher price. It was a set of solid gold poker chips the owner Paul (who had named the store after Pete, his parrot) once purchased from a homeless sailor for $10,000. Paul was asking $15,000 for the poker chips. A year went by, then two, then five. Nobody bought the gold chips. Finally one day the richest man on the planet walked into the store. He didn't buy the gold chips either. So, more years passed. Then a frail little boy came to shop after school, hand in hand with his matronly mother.


"Mommy, buy me those chips, please," said the frail little boy. "But, honey," consoled his matronly mother, "you know I don't have $15,000. Remember, we talked about how we would have to budget more sensibly since your wonderful father passed on." "Can't you just look in your purse and see? Maybe you've got more money than you think." "Don't be silly, darling. You know Mommy doesn't carry fifteen thousand dollars around in her purse." But just to humor her beloved, fatherless son, she dumped the entire contents of her purse on the countertop, separated the money from her hairbrush, chewing gum, and condoms and began counting.


Finally, she shook her head and said, "See, honey. I told you we don't have enough money. I only have fourteen thousand, nine hundred and ninety-two dollars." Watching this, the owner Paul - being a shrewd businessman and not wanting to see all this money leave his store - steps up and says, "Ma'am, let me make a suggestion. You obviously are eight dollars short of the fifteen grand you need for the poker chips, but we have some really nice decks of cards for a dollar each."


The mother examines the decks and offers to buy three for 90 cents each, which the owner quickly accepts, wisely knowing that he could net a profit of 18 cents. So, one more day passed and then, by golly, the owner finally did sell his gold chips for $15,000 to the homeless sailor who had originally owned them. On that night, his wife said, "Let's celebrate! You made a big profit today." And then Paul said something I will never forget (which is all the more remarkable when you consider that I wasn't even there to hear it). Paul said to his wife, "It isn't one big sale that keeps us in business. It's all the little sales. When you add them all together, they have made us rich. There are so many small sales and so few big ones that the small sales are much more profitable."


His wife smiled faintly and nodded in agreement. Suddenly, she understood this. And, if you want to maximize your poker profit, you need to understand it, too.The title of today's lecture is… "Small Edges that Add Up"


1. Opportunities for big edges during the play of a hand are relatively rare. The chance to earn a full extra bet through expert play only happens once or twice an hour - or even less! The opportunity to snare a whole pot through expert play may only happen once in a session. Those are big edges. Moderate edges are also not as common as many players suppose. But small edges are very common, and these small "expert decisions" are often more profitable on a per-hour basis than the major ones. After all, 30 small, $1 edges are worth more than two large $10 edges.


2. Not-so-weak raises.
A major advantage I have in a poker game is that I can often open or raise the blinds with hands that seem too weak for my position. Remember, the fewer players that remain to act behind you, the less strict your opening standards need to be. For instance, in a particular hold 'em game, I might estimate that I need at least a king-jack of mixed suits to raise from three seats before the dealer position. Fine. But if I'm four seats before the dealer position, this same hand is not quite profitable. Then what? Well, then I'll need to pass. But, wait! What if I can eliminate a player as a possible contestant? Now, I'm more or less (but not exactly for technical reasons you don't need to worry about today) in the position I need to be to raise. That's a small edge. Sometimes I am able to eliminate two or three (and rarely more) players by watching them before they act. This allows me to earn a profit by raising the blinds or opening the betting with hands I could not otherwise have played. Sometimes the tells are not strong, but I reason that two half tells are worth one whole player missing.


Among other things, players are likely to fold if they're (1) Staring at chips, (2) reaching for chips, (3) staring at cards, or (4) conspicuously watching you. They are likely to play if they're (1) Ignoring chips, (2) ignoring cards, (3) staring away, or (4) especially quiet or still.


3. Wait to rebuy.
Don't buy more chips if you have just enough to take the blinds or even a little extra. You'll maximize profit by playing short money and seeing the showdown without being eliminated through betting. Yes, there can be power in having enough chips to cover all bets. The stronger a player you are relative to your competition, the more you should tend to keep a lot of chips on the table. However, there is also power in having short stacks and in being able to go all-in. Often this can save you a pot you would have otherwise lost. When you fold a hand, you will never win the pot. But if you're all in with a hand you would have folded, you will sometimes win the pot. That's the power of short money, and one time this advantage really comes into play is when you're about to take the blinds. Therefore, it's often better to wait until after your blinds before rebuying.


4. Earning that call.
An exaggerated betting motion and chips splashed or spread chaotically will increase your chances of being called. Using this method, you can even bet some hands for value that would otherwise be slightly unprofitable. It's another small edge! Never forget that most opponents come with a bias toward calling. Anything you do that makes them suspicious increases your chance of being called. Therefore, against most opponents, when you know you have the better hand, a flashy or noisy wager is more likely to earn a call than a calm and quiet one.


5. Did the hand begin short handed?
If a hand starts shorted handed, you don't need as much strength to raise in the same position as you do if the hand starts full and becomes shorthanded. That's because players who voluntarily pass can be assumed more likely to have folded weak cards than strong ones. On average, this leaves strength among remaining players. I call this the bunching factor. When the deal begins short handed, this factor is not in play.


6. A better seat.
If you're in a good game, but opponents have seen you lose and are inspired, you can sometimes "correct" your image simply by changing seats and announcing that you feel confident in your new chair. This has nothing to do with superstition on your part - maybe on theirs.


7. Hesitation.
"He who hesitates is lost" applies to poker. Don't hesitate when you call and are worried about an overcall. And generally don't hesitate when you bluff. Opponents tend to interpret hesitation as uncertainty, and they are more likely to call. - Mike Caro

Reraising In Poker

Reraising In Poker


1. The reraise is one of the most misunderstood strategies in poker. Hardly anyone reraises correctly, and this includes some top professional players. There are many average players who would make more money if they never reraised. That's because when they choose to reraise, they often are doing it at whim and simply are costing themselves money.

There is an old poker adage that your hand needs to have a 2-to-1 favorable likelihood of being better than your opponent's hand to justify a bet, a raise, or a reraise. The thinking is that the extra amount that you bet above the minimum will cost you double if your opponent has you beat. But this logic is flawed for many reasons, including the fact that your opponent might not reraise if he has the better hand (for the same reasons that you wouldn't unless you had a big enough edge), that he might raise with a losing hand that he thinks is the better
hand, and that he might be bluffing.

In general, I believe that a 3-to-2 edge is a good all-around target advantage that could justify a reraise - sometimes greater, sometimes less. But just because you could justify that reraise doesn't mean that you should always do it. It is a complicated decision, whether or not to reraise. Today we'll look at a few of the elements that help us decide.


2. Who's behind you. When you want players waiting to act behind you to fold, you don't even need a 3-to-2 advantage over the raiser to justify a reraise. Sometimes, you can raise as the underdog! But if you don't want players behind you to fold (usually because you have a very strong hand that will make more money if they call), you often should just call, even with more than that 2-to-1 likelihood of having a hand better than the raiser.


3. The big secret about reraising. (A) If you have a hand that is big enough to justify a reraise, usually just call if players waiting to act behind you are loose. There usually is no advantage to chasing them out when you have a big hand. (B) But you usually should reraise with big hands if the waiting players are tight, because you aren't as likely to lure them in, and if they do come in, it may be with hands big enough to cut into your profit expectation. So, in most cases, you should reraise when players acting behind you are tight. That's so important that I'm going to explain it one more time. If you are considering raising or reraising and there are other players involved, consider the nature of the players who will have to call an extra bet if you raise. When you have a very strong hand and your decision otherwise would be borderline, usually just call with loose players waiting to act; and usually reraise (or raise) with tight players waiting to act. Following that simple advice will add a lot to your bankroll over the years.


4. How your position affects reraising. (A) Seldom just call in an early seat hoping to reraise. That strategy often fails because you'll have poor position on future betting rounds. It also is almost an "act of war," like a sandbag, which should be used sparingly against weak opponents, because you want them to have fun giving you their money, not feel hostile toward you. (B) Almost all of your reraising should come from last (or late) position, or in an effort to gain last position. (C) Before the final betting round, you often should cap the betting in last position, even with hands that are slight underdogs. This helps your image and often manipulates players into checking to you on the next round.

Let's talk a little more about (C). The cap is your friend. It's much easier to raise when you're capping, because nobody can reraise. You don't have to think about what we talked about earlier - whether your edge should be 2-to-1 or 3-to-2. You just need to swing out there and reraise with any kind of advantage, or for speculation, or to establish an image, or just on raw courage. Your opponents don't know that your hand wasn't strong enough to keep raising beyond that. They don't know that you wouldn't have reraised if it weren't for the cap. This works especially well if you're in the last position with betting rounds to come. You often can get everyone to check to you on the next round and decide what to do then.


5. When not to reraise. (A) Against bluffers (you often can make more if you let them bluff). (B) From early positions (because positional advantage often is what makes reraising worthwhile). (C) With very strong hands and loose players waiting (you want them in).


6. When to reraise. (A) When establishing an image. This helps you make yourself a force to be reckoned with, and opponents will be more timid and less apt to maximize their advantages in the future. (B) From late positions. Position then is working in your favor. (C) With strong hands and tight players waiting to act (because you have little to gain by inviting them in).


7. Caution. Good players can win in most poker games without ever reraising before the final round. But they might not be able to win if they reraise too often.

Poker Play Slow And Hard

When To Shift Gears In Poker?

Doyle Brunson, the twice world champion of poker and Hall of Fame member, talks a lot about "shifting gears." Of course, now that almost everybody drives a car with an automatic transmission, the concept of shifting gears may not have the impact it once did. So, pretend you're driving a big old truck or a small sports car without automatic. You need to shift to match driving conditions.


In poker, you can shift gears by changing from a very aggressive style of play to a more defensive one, from tight to loose, from bluff mode to non-bluff mode and back again. The object of shifting gears is to keep opponents off guard. The nice thing about shifting gears in poker is that you always know right away that you've shifted, but your opponents may throw thousands of dollars your way before they figure it out. But, what if your opponents aren't paying any attention to you? Then, shifting gears is silly. You might as well just make your most profitable long-range decision on every play. There's no reason to sacrifice the top choice in an effort to throw your opponents off-guard, because hey simply aren't reacting to you.


But that last type of opponent is more theoretical than actual. All opponents react to what you do to some extent, whether they realize it or not. Still, changing gears just for the sake of it doesn't accomplish much. You need to use the right gear at the right time. No sense cruising along the highway, making good time toward your destination, with no traffic, thinking, "Hey, I haven't shifted gears for a while, maybe I'll shift down to first gear and gradually rebuild my speed from there."


So, today we'll talk about shifting gears correctly. This material comes from the 29th in my serious of Tuesday Session classroom lectures at Mike Caro University of Poker, Gaming, and Life Strategy. The lecture was held on April 13, 1999. The following is from the handout that accompanied the lecture and has been specially enhanced for Card Player. The title of my talk was…

Shifting Gears for the Right Reasons

1. Shifting gears is simply the act of changing tactics suddenly between tight and
loose, between aggressive and passive, and back again. There is no word-class player who stays in the same gear all the time. You can't maximize your profit without shifting gears, but shifting gears for the wrong reason can just cost you money. Sure, if your opponents are playing strict game theory without making any adjustments in accordance with how you play, you can only lose money by shifting gears. There's simply no reason to do it. Shifting gears should only be done to confuse opponents or to enhance your image. There is no other reason whatsoever to shift. However, this does not mean that you shouldn't "randomize" your decisions, even against some opponents who may not be paying attention when you change tactics. If you're playing against an excellent opponent who is using poker game theory to his benefit (whether perfectly or imperfectly, whether consciously or unconsciously), you need to vary your decisions. Bet sometimes, but not always, with given hands. Bluff at random, but at the right frequency.


But shifting gears is different from this kind of sudden randomization. Shifting gears means you've changed your basic mode of aggression or deception and intend to stay in that new mode for many hands, many minutes, or maybe for hours.

2. There are only four good reasons to shift gears.

1. To be less predictable and more confusing;

2. To attack their money;

3. To defend your money;

4. To let opponents self-destruct.

3.Shifting to appear less predictable only matters against certain players. They are ones who otherwise (consciously or unconsciously) would understand howyou're playing and who would and could take advantage if you stayed in the same gear.

4. Don't shift unless you need to. Stay in your most profitable gear as much as possible. If you don't need to shift, don't!

5. Which gears work best?
Consider a low gear (conservative and unaggressive) against tight, sensible opponents in rake games, because a fast strategy will eat up your profits in rakes. Also use a low gear when you've been seen losing or otherwise haven't been able to establish a dynamic image - but have tried. This is very important, because normally borderline bets and raises are unprofitable against opponents who are inspired by your bad luck and may play better and become more deceptive as a result.

Middle gears (sometimes aggressive, but also sometimes defensive) work best against
aggressive and sensible opponents, but you should often shift up or down from middle gears. Middle gears should also be used against opponents who bluff often. In that case, middle gear often can mean calling, but not raising.


High (fast) gears should be used against opponents who are intimidated by your image. Also use high gears while you are building your image. When you're winning against weak opponents whose main fault is that they call too much with bad hands and don't raise enough with valuable hands, go into high gear and stay there unless conditions change.

6. The simple truth about shifting gears. Your primary goal should be to get into medium-high gear and stay there as much as possible. But -- except in rare games where opponents call too much, raise too little, and don't adapt -- you will lose money if you stay locked in the highest gear.

7. When you suddenly shift gears, you have the advantage!
Even the most observant opponent has no way to tell that you shifted right away. This advantage of "acting first" in shifting your strategy before your opponents shift in response is available to all players. Make sure you use it often and hope that your strongest opponents don't use it as much.

8. Even unobservant opponents can be confused by gear shifting. Unconsciously they sense volatility and become more timid and play worse against you.

9. BIG MISTAKE:
When you're in high gear and controlling the game… You should almost never shift down to play a big hand deceptively. Just keep betting and raising. Take advantage of your aggressive and deceptive image as long as it's working. - Mike Caro

Losing In Hold'em

Losing In Hold'em


Most poker players lose a whole lot more money than they should when things
go bad. They complain about misfortune, but a lot of it is self-inflicted. You've got to expect things to go bad from time to time in poker. If you learn how to cope with these inevitable losses, you'll have a lot more money to spend overall. The sad thing is that hardly anyone handles poker losses correctly. Today we'll talk about that.


The following is taken from the 42nd in my series of Tuesday Session classroom lectures at Mike Caro University of Poker, Gaming, and Life Strategy. The lecture was held on Aug. 3, 1999. The title of the lecture was ....
What to Do When You're Losing


1. When things go well. It's easy to keep your integrity when you have money. People who can afford to keep their word about paying back debts usually do. But the real test is when you can't easily afford to repay a debt. That's when character and integrity come into play. Well, a similar concept applies to whether you're winning or losing. It's much easier to stick to your game plan when the cards are running your way. Your true test as a player is how you handle losing. This is precisely when many otherwise skillful players fail the test and damage their bankrolls - or even go broke. Repeating, the main reason skillful players go broke is that they don't know what to do when they're losing.


2. Don't forget poker's most important secret. The secret is simply, "Play your best game all the time." It's a secret that's easy to acknowledge, but hard for players to follow, especially when they're losing. I believe that playing your best game all the time is so important that years ago, I created a whole audio cassette tape to drive the point home. Of course, it seems almost silly to make a big deal out of playing your best game. What kind of a secret is that? Everybody understands it already. Sure, but not everybody does it. In fact, almost nobody does it. That's what makes it important.


3. Two types of dangerous losses. There are two types of losses that put otherwise skillful poker players seriously off course: (1) losing sessions, and (2) losing streaks. Losing sessions make some players lose their will to play their best game hand after hand. Frustration takes over. Before long, they're playing as poorly as the opponents they came to conquer - and sometimes more poorly. It's sad, and it happens all the time. But, from now on, I want you to play as perfectly as you can, every hand, every decision. It's those decisions that matter. As I've taught for almost 30 years, your lifetime profit will be the sum of your good decisions
minus the sum of your bad decisions, and that truth doesn't change whether those decisions are made while you're in the middle of a winning session or in the middle of a losing session. Perhaps more damaging are losing streaks. Every poker player experiences them. Losses after losses, day after day - I know the feeling. It's as though you expect things to go bad. One of the most destructive things players do during a losing streak is panic. They play worse because they need to win, but that's the wrong attitude. You don't need to think about winning. You need to think only about making good decisions, hand after hand, session after session. The wins will come when they're ready to come. Winning isn't your job. Making good decisions is your job. Winning is the eventual result of making good decisionsconsistently


4. Let's not even think of it as a session. You can let a losing session destroy you if you think about it as a session to be won or lost. Whether you win or lose during a session, though, really has no bearing on your lifetime profit. A session is just something with an artificial beginning and ending. If you didn't know what they were, you'd simply weigh your bankroll once in a while to see how you were doing. Sessions don't really enter into the equation, so why even think about them as wins or losses? And remember during any "session" to be careful when you pass "Caro's Threshold of Misery." That's when you've lost so much that any additional damage doesn't feel any worse. But you can encounter this dangerous condition only if you think in terms of sessions. So, don't. The best psychological way to handle losses is to begin every hand fresh. You're neither ahead nor behind. You are where you are when the next deal begins. Your good decisions will give you the best chance of rising from that point. But if you lose that hand, forget it. It's on to the next one. Again, you're neither winning nor losing. You're starting fresh. You are where you are - again and again.


5. Don't think of it as a streak. Streaks - winning or losing - are always something seen in the rear-view mirror. There is never anything in the cards that will dictate that the streak either will or won't continue. So, you're always starting fresh. Just as every hand is a new start, every session is a new start. Never give a streak the importance of something that has influence over your future.


6. Strategic adjustments when you're losing. Here are things you should do when you're losing, not because there's any force causing the cards to be bad, but because your image is damaged and your opponents tend to play better: (1) Be more selective about your starting hands. (2) Don't bluff (at least not very often). (3) Don't raise as often. (4) Don't bet "for value" with the hands that you normally would.


7. Psychological tricks when losing. Try these: (1) Remind yourself that you are exactly even right now. (2) Remember that even though what you do now doesn't seem to matter, there will come a time when it will matter. Things you might try during a losing streak: (A) Take a small win and go home. (B) Play in a smaller game. (C) Look for reasons why you're losing. If you find reasons, adjust. But if you don't find any, stick to your game plan and keep the faith.Mike Caro

Luck In Poker?

Luck Matters In Poker?


Mostly Because Your Opponents Think So
I don't allow my students to be superstitious. The next hand always is based on a nearly random shuffle of cards, favoring no one in particular. No matter what has happened in the past, the next deal always means a brand-new start for you. The cards don't remember who won the last hand. But even if they did remember, they probably would be too lazy to gang up on you. It takes too much effort. The cards don't conspire to favor certain players or to aggravate others. But streaks do exist. I can use powerful computer algorithms to deal cards
for billions of hands. Then what? Well, then you can look at those hands and see things that will amaze you! You'll suffer a hundred hands in a row without winning a pot. You'll win with three full houses in a row. You name it, you'll see it.
The Way it Should Be


But this is all natural. This is what's supposed to happen. This is the way it should be. Streaks are normal, not something to be surprised about. If you flip a coin 20 times and it comes out tails, tails, tails, heads, tails, tails, heads, tails, heads, heads, heads, heads, heads, heads, tails, heads, tails, tails, tails, heads - that's nothing amazing. There were six heads in a row, but so what? If the sequence came heads, tails, heads, tails, heads, tails, heads, tails, heads, tails,
heads, tails, heads, tails, heads, tails, heads, tails, heads, tails, that's peculiar. Each sequence is equally rare (just over a million to one against, in fact), but sequences with recognizable patterns suggest that something might be interfering with random events. There might be a bias - not necessarily, but maybe. There also may be a bias when you see long streaks, but probably not. Always remember that streaks are natural, something you need to learn to live
through. If you don't, you will be unprepared to win at poker.


Luck has influence, but the longer you play poker, the weaker its influence. And the big secret is that the more you act as if forces other than fair and random distribution of cards determine your fate, the worse you'll do. If the game is honest, there are no mysterious forces to fear. But your opponents will fall victim to the illusion of luck - and that's good. You just need to figure out how to take advantage, and I'm here to help you. The following is taken from the 33rd in my series of Tuesday Session classroom lectures at Mike Caro University of Poker,
Gaming, and Life Strategy. The lecture was held on May 18, 1999. This is from the handout that accompanied the lecture, and it has been specially enhanced.
The title of the lecture was ...
Using the Illusion of Luck to Win Money
I have witnessed the longest streak in poker history. So, nothing you tell me about good luck or bad luck is going to impress me. I saw a woman in the 1970s go years as a "card rack." But there's nothing supernatural about this. Luck just happens. There is no force behind it except the power of probability and "probability storms" that have the illusion of supernatural power. Trust probability to do the right thing. Eventually, it will.



1. The woman was named Sumi. There is no doubt that she got much better than average
cards in key situations for two years running. That doesn't mean that she got big hands all the time, but clearly, she had so many unusually big hands in key situations that she came to believe that this was the norm. She also tended to risk an extra raise very frequently. This magic combination of very aggressive play, her obvious expectation that good cards would come, and the fact that they did come in a history-making streak meant that she had tremendous power over her opponents. This was the single event that did the most to convince me how powerful a weapon good luck can be in the minds of opponents. This is why I often have stated that it's much better to declare that you're lucky than to let opponents know that you're running badly. If opponents truly believe you're lucky, you actually can see the fear in their eyes. Conceptually, luck is the most powerful element of profit. But not your luck. It's everyone's luck - yours and your opponents' - that influences the way players will react. You can tap into their reactions to luck to make much profit. But don't trick yourself into thinking that luck is earning the money for you. You're earning the money because you understand the absurdity of putting faith in luck. And your opponents are losing the money because they do not understand this.


2. There is no guarantee that the cards will break even in poker in your lifetime. But if you have skill and you make each decision matter, you'll probably win even without your "fair share" of luck.


3. Even in life itself, things don't break even. Some people waste away in hospitals and other prance down pretty paths. In poker, it's possible for two break-even players to sit in the same $75-$150 game for a year. One might win $150,000. One might lose $150,000. It will be all dumb luck, but which one do you think will be giving the lessons? Which one will be taking the lessons?
Even if the cards do break even, other elements may not. Some of these other elements
are: (1) whether you are able to find the best games; (2) the size of the games you're playing when you get your best and biggest cards; (3) getting backing for games beyond your bankroll; and (4) being in the right place when the "producer" comes to town to unload $10 million.



4. Good luck has great influence on your foes. They lose by calling more often with
weak hands, because they can't believe what they're seeing. (Also, there's not as much discredit in being beaten by someone on a winning streak, so the weak calls won't be scrutinized if they lose.) They lose by not betting or raising with winning hands, because they're intimidated. If you think opponents stay out of your way when they think you're running well, you need to re-examine this. You need to make continual value bets and raises when you're conspicuously lucky. Opponents will call more. They also will be less likely to maximize their advantage by raising when they have quality hands. Both of these factors play heavily in your favor and dictate that you should go into high gear and bet and raise with small advantages. You've probably heard that so-and-so "knows how to play a rush." Well, now you know what that means. Nothing more.


5. Opponents tend to call more liberally whether they're on a winning streak or a losing streak. On a winning streak, they think that luck is with them and they should stretch their calling to take advantage. On a losing streak, they just don't care.


6. This means that you should value bet less often into opponents who are conspicuously lucky or conspicuously unlucky.
Streaks can be seen only in the rear-view mirror. They always are things that already
have happened. They never have any influence on what the next cards will be.


7. Bet more liberally when winning; bet less liberally when losing. When you're winning, most opponents are too intimidated to try tricky responses to your bets. They'll usually call when weak and often won't raise when strong. But when you're losing, opponents are inspired. They play better against you. They raise for value when you least expect it. For this reason, value bets simply don't work as well - and often don't work at all - when you're losing.


8. Players who are complaining about their bad luck seldom bluff. So, seldom call. They would rather just show their bad hands and ask, "See what I mean?"


9. Never complain about your bad luck. Opponents won't be sympathetic. They'll be
inspired. And they'll play better. Simply deny that you're experiencing bad luck. That's the road to profit.Mike Caro

Talking Hold'em Tells

Using "Talking Tells" To Destroy Opponents

First, I'm going on the Card Player cruise to Alaska in June with my wife Phyllis. When you book your cruise, you can add just $195 ($295 for a couple) and get five hourly presentations on skills I believe will add thousands of dollars to your poker income every year. I'm carefully crafting these five hour-long presentations to cover only the most valuable aspects of winning poker. We're scheduling these sessions so they won't interfere with your meals, entertainment, poker play, or in-port excursions. And, if you've never cruised to Alaska before, this is one of the greatest adventures you'll experience. You'll walk on glaciers, land on lakes, tour towns you never imagined, and even eat at remote hunting lodges. Exactly what you choose to do is up to you, but Phyllis and I rate this cruise as one of our best vacations ever - and that's why we're repeating it.


We're calling my sessions MCU At Sea. That's because they're a function of Mike Caro University of Poker, Gaming, and Life Strategy. MCU At Sea was Card Player owner Barry Shulman's idea. And it was also Shulman who talked me down from my suggested $1,495 price for the five sessions. He pointed out the PR value of being with the very finest of poker people who take the CP cruises - people who might deal with me in other ways in the future. So, you can thank Barry Shulman for the low prices. I'd be honored if you'd join me on this cruise. We'll giggle, have fun, and inbetween we'll learn a lot about poker. Details are on page ??. David James' Big Blind
Second, David James showed a rough cut of his new movie, the Big Blind on February 11th. James - a long-time poker player -- wrote, directed, and produced the film himself. The screening was hosted by MCU at Hollywood Park Casino. Are you wondering what I thought of it? Fine, I'll tell you. It was significantly better than I expected for a rough cut. James explained that when the final cut is presented - with the inserted clips, enhanced sound, and reselected scenes - even the storyline itself could be different. "You won't recognize it," he speculated before an audience almost exclusively populated by members of the online newsgroup rec.gambling.poker. The screening was an event within ESCARGOT, organized and promoted by none other than Card Player columnist and renowned poker expert Lou Krieger. You probably wonder what ESCARGOT stands for, but you'll have to keep wondering, because I forgot and I'm really late with this column. Anyway, back to David James' Big Blind. The whole room echoed with laughter during many parts, because the poker actions were true to life - and James' fictional characters were ones we all seemed to know. I'm hoping that James sells this movie to someone who will distribute it with the same care with which it was written and produced. The Big Blind is potentially a big winner. When you play poker, you've got to listen - really listen. I don't mean to your poker teachers or to those little voices inside you. I don't mean listen to your Walkman or to the cocktail waitress. I mean, you've got to listen to your opponents. The things they say and the sounds they make translate into tons of profit. And that's our topic for today. The following is taken from the 32nd in my series of Tuesday Session classroom lectures at Mike Caro University of Poker, Gaming, and Life Strategy. The lecture was held on May 11, 1999. Using "Talking Tells" to Destroy Opponents


1. You need to grasp solid strategic concepts to win at poker. But, after that, it's tells and psychology - not statistics and complex tactics - that account for most of your profit. If you don't truly understand the basics of poker, you aren't ready to use tells or to apply psychological concepts. Most of the things I teach about poker are advanced. They can account for the majority of your profit. But, if you don't first understand the fundamental concepts of winning poker, you won't win. You've got to master the basics first. So, with that in mind - let's move on.


2. Not all profitable tells are visual. Some of the most important ones you can't see at all. They're audible. You simply have to listen for them. And if you listen well enough, you can almost beat poker with your eyes closed!


3. Four keys to spoken tells: (1) What the player says; (2) when the player says it; (3) how the player says it; (4) what the player doesn't say. It's important to pay attention to what your opponents say. Hostile or goading speech generally means a strong hand. Most players fear that their combative words will irritate you into calling, so this verbal behavior is seldom a bluff (though sometimes it is - so know you opponents!). Natural, non-poker conversation is an indication of a player at ease. That player is seldom worried about his hand and isn't likely to be bluffing. He is also - at that moment - a poor target for a value bet. If a player suddenly starts talking as you're betting or calling, that's almost always a last-second desperation effort to make you reconsider. If a player speaks in negative tones about his hand, he is usually strong. If he's excessively cheerful or friendly in his voice, he's usually weak. If a player tries to avoid engaging in conversation after betting, that's a clue that he is more likely than usual to be bluffing.


4. Listen for talk that sounds natural. The more naturally an opponent engages in conversation, the less likely he is to be bluffing. And the more casual an opponent's conversation seems when it's your turn to act, the less willing you should be to bet. (This is just another way of acting uninterested, similar to looking away. When a player is looking away, he is trying to make your bet seem safe by giving you nothing to worry about. When a player keeps talking casually, he is also trying to avoid giving you clues that he may be interested in the hand.) I have used this audible tell to great profit. If someone is talking about how to fix his washing machine as you start to bet, and if he continues to talk about his washing machine, you should be careful. Don't make any weak wagers or value bets. True, sometimes this player is so weak that he just doesn't care. He's simply waiting to throw his hand away. But, more often he's not worried. He has a significant hand. It's when a player stops talking or has trouble sounding rational while talking that you should suspect weakness. When that happens, the opponent is worried - and probably weak.


5. Humming and soft whistling. This often ceases either (1) immediately when an opponent bluffs, or (2) later when you look as if you're beginning to call. Those rare opponents who whistle under their breath are goldmines. They will almost always stop whistling when they bluff. Same for humming.


6. Believe them! Players who tell you they have a big hand are usually telling you the truth! Not always, of course, but usually. They are waiting to take pride in showing down their hands and saying, "I told you so," in words or gestures of their chosing.


7. Listening to the word. Listen carefully for an opponent to say the word "bet." If there is anything sad or reluctant about it, this usually means a strong hand, so seldom call.


8. Breathing. Players who pause to catch their breath quietly, as if they don't want you to know they're struggling to breathe normally, are usually bluffing. Remember, bluffers have trouble breathing naturally and sometimes choose not to breathe at all. Players who hold big hands also often have trouble breathing naturally, but their breathing tends to be quite audible, and you should seldom call their bets with medium-strong hands.


9. Forced conversation. Whenever an opponent has bet and his conversation seems unnatural, unfocused, or forced, there's a very great chance that he is bluffing. That's because it's hard to concentrate on casual conversation when you're in immediate danger.


10. Major tip. When considering a borderline bet for value, first look away. Just listen. Even close your eyes if you choose. You can often "hear" the silence and sense the stillness. After an opponent has bluffed, he will usually be silent, too. But the action I'm talking about is before your opponent has acted. It's your turn to act. Ominously silent players are often trying not to do anything to discourage your bet. That usually means your opponent is ready to pounce. So, don't bet! - Mike Caro

Get Called At Poker

How to Get a Call When You Want One


Thanks for showing up again. Today we're going to continue our exploration of a series of lectures I've delivered at Mike Caro University of Poker, Gaming, and Life Strategy. These lectures take place on Tuesday evenings and include one-page handouts outlining the key concepts.


"How to get called by weak hands", in Poker Play


1. Why go against the trend? In order to understand where a great deal of your poker profit comes from, you need to realize that your typical opponent came to the casino to call. Remember, we talked about this last time. Opponents don't come to the poker table hoping to throw hands away. The thrill of poker dictates that most opponents will have a bias toward calling and against folding.


That's important, and I'll repeat it. Most of your opponents want to call and they do not want to fold. True, almost everyone gains when weak opponents call more than they should. But, if you go out of your way to exploit their weakness, you can potentially win much more than anyone else. Conversely, if you go against the grain, swim upstream, sail into the wind - pick one - and decide you want to condition opponents to not call, you might succeed. If so, you might launch a career as a bluffer. But that success will not bring you maximized profit. Not against typical weak opponents. Not ever. This doesn't mean you should not bluff. You should. But you need to know when and how. Bluffing simply isn't the right strategy in most situations against most opponents who are eager to call. Period. Because opponents call too much, you should take advantage of their biggest mistake by encouraging them to call even more. Occasionally, you can find an ideal situation in which a bluff is the right strategy, but overall, in limit poker, you should try to make
most of your profit from your opponents' greatest weakness - they call too much!


2. The great reflex. Your opponent has a calling reflex. This is an almost-automatic response to anything seen, heard, or imagined. Most opponents want to call, and if you give them a reason, they will. In fact, it's very much like facing down a rattle snake in the dessert. If you want that critter to strike, just do almost anything to get its attention. Reach forward, clap your hands, kick up some dust, run, stick out your tongue. Anything! That rattler is predisposed to bite. If you don't want to be bitten, freeze, or back off slowly. Same goes for poker opponents. If you want to be called, do anything. You can trigger their calling reflex by jittering, playing with your chips, talking, or doing anything animated. If you don't want all call, your best bet is to do nothing. Does this strategy always work? No. If your opponent has a very weak hand, nothing you do is likely to win the call. And if your opponent has a reasonably strong hand, doing nothing - although it won't increase the probability of a call - isn't likely to prevent the call. But there's a whole herd of hands in the middle where your opponents can be easily influenced by what you do. And that's where the profit is. When you want a call, do something. Do anything. Do it fast.


3. Simple words. Opponents are susceptible to simple words, such as, "I don't think I'm bluffing this time." Even though you're denying that you're probably bluffing, you're putting doubt in their head, and they'll call. Compose your own words to suit your personality, your opponent's personality, and the situation. If you just blurt, "Call me, I'm bluffing," that's not as good as the more subtle statement that I suggested above. It's too blatant, and your opponent is likely to feel conned and instinctively think, "Oh, sure!" With the "I don't think I'm bluffing this time" wording, though, he's just likely just to feel bewildered. You're telling him your not bluffing. But, at the same time, by adding "this time" you are subtly implying that lots of times you do bluff. It works.


4. Which path to the truth? What I call "either/or" talk works wonders. Just say, "I think I actually made this straight flush, but maybe I missed it," and you'll force your foe's thinking into either/or mode. Either you made a great hand or you're bluffing. This gives you the luxury of betting a medium hand for value without fearing a raise. Being able to bet without fearing a raise is very important. I call this betting with impunity. When you can do that, you can profitably make many daring wagers where you otherwise would have had to check. I use this often in hold 'em games. Suppose I have the second highest pair and an ace kicker against an aggressive opponent. Now the river card is a third heart. "You're not going to believe this," I say. "I might have called all the way with nine-six. They might even have been the same suit. I'm not going to tell you what suit my cards are, either. Might be spades and I might be bluffing." Faced with this confusing either/or talk, your opponent is not likely to risk a raise. Either you have that flush or you're bluffing with garbage. You'll usually just get a call without having to fear a raise. What's wrong with a raise? Can't you just throw your second pair away against a raise? No! If you did that routinely, your opponents eventually would figure out that they just need to raise you on the river to win most of the time. Correct strategy dictates that you call most of the time when you're raised on the river - even with hands that are not wonderful. You'll usually lose with this call, but the pot is large enough that you only need to win once in a while to make these calls worthwhile. So, you usually have to call a raise, and it's worth going to the effort to talk your opponent out of raising if he does hold the better hand. Another amazing thing about this either/or, bluffing-or-big hand talk is that it will get very weak hands to call. After all, they can gamble that you missed the flush. The fact that you actually have the second-highest pair with an ace kicker doesn't occur to your opponents, because you've made them use up their limited thinking time pondering whether you made the flush or you didn't. Either/or.


5. Fun as fun can be. As we talked about previously, you need to be fun to play with. That way, you'll earn maximum calls from opponents who won't find calling you and losing painful. Once you establish that image, you can earn a lot of extra money betting medium hands and being called by very weak hands. You will, in fact, make money with hands other players can't even bet profitably.


6. What can it cost? If you want a call and your opponent is about to pass, do anything. Remember how we talked about that snake that's just looking for a reason to strike. Well, what if the little critter has finally decided that it isn't going to strike. Or, more to the point, what if your opponent has finally decided that he isn't going to call. Suppose you really want the call. Well, as I said, do anything. Knock over your chips. Jitter. Laugh. It's a freeroll, and you might get the opponent to reevaluate, start thinking all over again, and make the call.


7. Finally. Despite everything I've said today and in the last column, some opponents simply don't call much. Against them, bluff more often and don't bet medium-strong hands aggressively. - Mike Caro

Poker Play Situations

Tricky Situations In Poker Play


People make key mistakes in hold 'em about whether to bet a pair of the second-highest rank on the board. You should not be afraid to make that bet into one or two opponents when you're first to act. If you only bet top pair, you are being too conservative. However, you should routinely check second pair, even with a good kicker, if players behind you bluff too frequently or are especially deceptive. The bigger your kicker, the more likely you should be to bet. You need to mix it up, though. Sometimes check; sometimes bet. You should be more willing to bet second pair if the top board card is small, such as 10-8-4, than if it's large, such as A-8-4. (Of course, there are only a few situations when you would hold a pair of eights after the flop.) It's easy to go overboard once you give yourself permission to bet second pair, so you need to strike a happy balance. Against typical opponents, betting about half the time or a little less will adequately mix up your strategy, add to your aura of deceptiveness, and enhance your overall profit. Seldom call awful-looking cards in seven-card stud. In seven-card stud, you should usually call when you bet and are raised on the river. That's because the pot is usually large enough to justify that call. Even though you will normally lose, you'll win often enough to earn a long-range profit. But, if you made a legitimate bet with a medium-strong hand and are raised by a player with exposed cards that look awful, you can usually pass confidently. Most opponents won't try to bluff with hands that show little potential strength. They don't think you'll believe them. Therefore, this raise almost always means a strong hand. Bluffs come more willingly and more often from opponents whose hands look strong but aren't than from opponents whose hands look weak.


Careless overcalling.


A common mistake made by even some advanced players to overcall on the river (last card) with the same kinds of medium-strong hands they would make a single call with. Your hand should be much stronger to overcall. A very simple way to explain this is to show that the pot odds change dramatically when someone else calls. Let's say the pot is $100 after an opponent bets and it costs you $10 to call. This means the pot is laying you $100 to $10 or 10 to 1. That's what we mean by pot odds. In such a situation you would only need to have once chance in 11 of winning to break even. More than that, you should make the call. Less than that, you shouldn't. Still confused? OK, suppose you played the same situation just 10 times. You called $10 each time, hoping to win that $100 pot. You figure you were a 9 to 1 underdog, and you were right. As fate would have it, by golly, you won exactly as many times as you projected for those 10 calls - namely, just once. So, nine times, you lost $10, for a negative total of $90.


Once you won the $100 you were pursuing. So, overall you won $10 on 10 calls and each call was theoretically worth $1. Fine. We now see that if you're a 9 to 1 underdog when the pot is laying you 10 to 1, you can call and make money. Now what? Here's what. If someone else calls that same pot before you do and you think you have just as good a chance of beating the opener as the caller does, you might be tempted to overcall. After all, the pot is now bigger than before. It is now $110, ($100 after the first wager, plus $10 after the other player called). So, an overcall is tempting. But, wait! That caller only added $10 to the pot, but your odds of winning were disproportionately lowered. Why? Well, already said that the caller has just as much a chance of beating the bettor as you do. That means, even if you are right and you beat the bettor one in 10 times, you still need to beat the caller. Since you only have a 50 percent chance of doing this, your odds are twice as bad. You now only have one chance in 20, not one chance in 10, of winning the pot. That's 19-to-1 against. Is the pot laying you 19-to-1? Heck, no! Only $110 to $10, or 11-to-1. If you call you will be losing forty cents on the dollar. Huh? How do you figure that? Easy. Same way as before. Nineteen $10 losses, or $190 negative total. One $110 gain. Total for 20 calls is an $80 loss, which averages a $4 loss for each $10 call - or 40 percent of your investment. That's 40 cents on each dollar down the drain. And, my friends, this is exactly why so many overcalls don't compute. Most players - even easoned professionals - don't realize that in limit poker their hands need to be very significantly better to overcall than to call - not just marginally better.


Betting "on the come."


In hold 'em, you often start with two suited cards and catch two more of that suit on the flop. If everyone checks to you, whether to take a "free card" qualifies as a tricky situation. Sometimes, you simply should check and take the free card. But, you should usually bet, unless your opponents are very deceptive and likely to checkraise. By betting, you will often get a free card on the next round where the limits double. And if you connect, you can just keep betting your flush, which has gained deceptive value. The same holds true for two cards higher than the board. Then, if you pair on the turn (fourth card), keep betting. Otherwise, usually take the free river card.


When to bet weak hands.


Betting weak hands into other weak hands is one of the most fundamental talents you can master in poker play. If you check them, you are likely to be outplayed and surrender the pot. It's especially important to bet out on the final round when there's a reasonable chance that your opponent is also very weak. If you check, you may be bluffed into - and be unwilling to call. That costs you a whole pot! Checking and hoping to win in weak showdown situations is usually the wrong choice. When you're reasonably sure your lone opponent is weak, but it's near fifty-fifty whether you can win in a showdown, then the best choice is usually to not risk a showdown. Just bet, instead. - Mike Caro

Bankroll In Hold'em

Protecting Your Poker Bankroll And More


I'm going to start by telling you something that you know is true in your heart. You should never criticize a person for taking "too much" risk, so long as that person understands the risk being taken and has the best of it. The more risk you take, the more likely you are to capture sudden wealth, and the more likely you are to be damaged in the pursuit. The risk is up to you.
That's important, and I'll repeat it. The more risk you accept, the more likely you are to suddenly prosper and the more likely you are to suddenly go broke. So, you see, it's your choice. What's an unacceptable risk for you may be tolerable for someone else. It's a personal decision. It's up to them. And it's up to you. Also, you should be aware that there are mathematically derived methods that can be used to maximize your chance of success once you've defined your goals. Although we've discussed these concepts before, we won't deal with them today. Here are the things that I spoke about at the Tuesday Session…


1. How big does your bankroll need to be? It is folly to criticize a player for having an insufficient starting bankroll. Taking 100 shots with $50 each time gives you about the same chance of eventual success as taking a single shot with $5,000 - provided you play your best game at all times. Of course, this isn't precisely true. Other factors may influence your fate substantially. What factors? Well, if you play with a single buy-in, you're more likely to go all-in. These all-in situations change your prospects. Actually, being all-in can often work to your advantage, because other players may then eliminate themselves from the showdown by not calling bets. While this is happening, you are guaranteed to make the showdown. This means you will win all pots where you can stumble into the best hand, while your opponents will not. You may also play differently on short money and your opponents may play differently against you. You sometimes will not have the opportunity to stay in a good game with $50, although you might have stayed and made profit if you had a big bankroll behind you. There are many other factors to consider, but - in general - taking 100 shots with just $50 each time can be considered the same as gathering $5,000 before you play the first time. If you play the same type of poker, your prospects will be similar. So, the common notion that short money is at a big disadvantage is a myth. You are much more likely to go broke with only a small buy-in, but the force of all those short buy-ins combined should give you about the same opportunity overall as one big bankroll.


2. Not everyone needs a bankroll.


Players who only expect to play occasionally, or who are playing recreationally, can just bring whatever they can afford whenever they can afford it. Bankrolls are things you build and are designed for people without infinite assets who want to play regularly.


3. You must play your best game all the time.


The policy of playing your best game most of the time is the greatest destroyer of
bankrolls there is. At higher-limit games, players actually seem to take turns "going on tilt." If you pass your turn quite often, without your opponents realizing it, you'll win the most money. This is known as "Caro's Law of Least Tilt." I first wrote about this almost 20 years ago. It remains one of the most fundamentally important things you can learn if you want to succeed at poker. You are not likely to succeed if you decide to blatantly take advantage of knowledgeable opponents' superloose play. If they're taking turns going on tilt, and you come into the game and play perfectly stable, you won't fit in. They will resent you and often they will stop providing you with profit. The trick is to play along and show some fast action, too. Simulate tilt. Make them aware of it. But pass your turn when they don't notice. Among equally skilled players, the one who spends the least time on tilt (or simulating tilt) wins the most money.


4. Don't make the mistake of routinely promoting yourself to higher limits as you continue to win. You might eventually find a level you can't beat. When this happens, most players refuse to step back down, and they lose or "spin their wheels" for the rest of their poker careers. This is actually an application of the Peter Principle (about how people get promoted until they reach their level of incompetence) to poker.


5. Be selective about your games.


Don't routinely take the first one you see. Most of your profit will come from good
games. Even most winning players lose money in tougher games. Those are fighting words, but they're true. If I could select the worst 50 percent of games that professionals played in throughout their careers, most would be losers for those sessions. It is the other 50 percent of their games - and sometimes an even much smaller portion of their games - that supply the profit for most pros. Game selection is much more important than most players suppose.


6. You should be less protective of a small bankroll.


The larger your bankroll grows, the more worthy it is of protection and the less chances you should take. That's because a large bankroll would be much harder to replace from sources in the world beyond poker. You can usually get a small starting bankroll from the "real" world, but it's unlikely that you will be able to replace an established bankroll in the same way.


7. Don't treat your bankroll like a tournament buy-in.


You can have a "tournament" almost any day you want. Just keep jumping into higher and higher limits until you reach a long-shot goal or go broke. But in a tournament, only one player ends up with the chips. Everyone else goes broke. Don't treat your bankroll that way.


8. Don't spend your bankroll.


It's tempting to start with $500, win $20,000, spend $12,000 you think you don't need, then lose $8,500. You'll be flat broke, on the rail, and begging for money. But you actually won $11,500! Don't let that happen to you. As strange as it seems, the majority of winning poker players - players who actually beat the games and have an expectation of profit - are broke or nearly broke most of the time. Why? Because they spend their bankrolls. Think about it.- Mike Caro

Poker Tells

Poker Tells


1. Tells are simply mannerisms that enable us to determine when opponents are bluffing and when they're not (plus much more) based upon how they behave. In general, your job is to figure out whether an opponent is acting or not. Usually, if he is acting, you should determine what he is trying to get you to do and react opposite. If he is not acting, react directly in accordance with the tell.


In Caro's Book of Tells - The Body Language of Poker, and subsequently in my video set covering the topic, I examined poker tells that were both voluntary and involuntary. Many of these clues come from players who are not acting. For instance, when you hear and see an opponent breathing fast, loud, or erratically, there's a great chance that he holds a strong hand. This is involuntary. Conversely, a player who is bluffing is often afraid to breathe. You will encounter very shallow breathing from typical bluffers. Sometimes they don't breathe at all. Again, this isn't an act. When someone who was formerly steady makes a bet and seems suddenly to be trembling in the midst of a hand, this is not likely to be an act. Nor is it a bluff. While many people think a shaking hand is suspicious and indicative of nervousness associated with a bluff, this isn't the way life works. Players who are bluffing tend to bolster themselves and become rigid - showing few outward signs of nervousness. They are afraid of being "read," and so they steady themselves and do nothing out of the ordinary. This, too, is not an act. It is instinctive reaction.


Your opponents do act, however, when they decide to convince you of something. Usually, this takes the form of acting opposite of the true strength of their hand - weak when they hold strong hands and strong when they hold weak hands. That's why you'll see players with unbeatable hands shrug, sigh, and bet sadly. They are trying to convince you that their hands are not worth getting excited about, but it's a lie. In short, your first mission is to decide whether your opponent is acting. If he is, figure out what he's trying to get you to do and disappoint him.


2. Players are more likely to be acting if they think that you are scrutinizing them. Therefore, if a player has a tendency to give away his hand by overacting, you should make it very clear that you're watching him. Very many times when I can't pick up a tell on a player, one will suddenly appear when I make it obvious to that opponent that I'm pondering what to do while I study him. The more I scrutinize the more likely my opponent is to exhibit a tell in a failed effort to hide the truth.


3. Try not to appear that you're reacting to a tell. Once you spot the tell, hesitate, pretend
to ponder. Finally, make your move as if still undecided. The more quickly you react to a tell, the more likely you are to tip off your opponent that you are reading him, and the more likely he is to correct the behavior. Remember to hesitate. Sometimes pride temps us to react immediately to a tell. I've even seen professional players make a quick winning call and then explain to the opponent, "I knew you were bluffing as soon as you blah, blah, blah." Well, that's sure to keep the opponent from never blah, blah, blahing again, and it might cost you a ton of money. If you spot a tell, use it to make money. Don't use it to show off.


4. You should not think of most tells as absolute clues to an opponent's hand. The vast majority of tells are only indications that push a decision in one direction or another. You can think of most tells the same way you'd think of someone trying to make a heart flush in seven-card stud when you've seen six other hearts. It is much less likely now that the player has the flush, but you aren't certain that he doesn't. Tells - except for the rarer ones that are almost 100 percent positive indicators - should be used in this same way. They should be weighed along with many other factors in coming to a conclusion.


5. Watch for the tail end of a bet. A little extra emphasis usually means a weak or vulnerable hand. This turns out to be one of the most profitable tells in poker, but one of the hardest to spot. You need to really practice observing. The reason it's hard to see the tail end of the bet is because you're apt to be overwhelmed by the more obvious motion. After awhile, you're get used to watching for a little extra push with the tip of the fingers. It's very subtle, and when you see it you can safely call with a medium-strong hand. You're facing either a bluff or a daring bet from a less than stellar hand. Psychologically, the bettor reasoned that he needed that subtle extra emphasis to make his hand seem stronger than it is.


6. Watch to see how much general motion an opponent is normally comfortable with. If that opponent is quite jittery, taps his foot, shakes his legs, drums his fingers, shifts around in his chair, or shows other signs of life, you should be concerned if the opponent bets and continues in this mode. Players who are normally animated and continue to fidget after a bet are generally
comfortable with their hands. Players who suddenly freeze are often bluffing. This holds true for humming, whistling, and talking, too. When it stops, that's often a bluff or a weak hands. If it
doesn't stop, beware.


7. Finally, I'm going to remind you again: Listen to the breathing! This is the main indicator of whether many opponents are bluffing. Watch for heavy breathing. That's almost always a sign of a strong hand in winning poker. Breath holding, though, means weakness.

Holdem Starting Hands

Positions In Texas Hold'em


Early Position

When in early position, you must play extra tight. You want to stick with strong hands like AA-TT, AK, AQ, AJs and KQs. If you’re playing shorthanded, you can play all the pocket pairs down to 22 if you come in with a raise.

You should never limp into the pot from early position. If a hand isn’t strong enough to raise preflop, it should be folded from early position. Weak hands are hard to play from out of position, especially if it gets raised up behind you. Always come in with a raise from early position.


Late Position


You can play many more hands from late position thanks to the advantage of acting last. The information advantage you gain by acting last each betting round is huge – you get to see every action your opponents take before you have to act.

If several people have limped in already, you can limp in behind them with small hands that can occasionally win big pots. The suited connectors 45s-JQs, and small pocket pairs 22-77 can be limped in behind other limpers. The goal here is to either hit a big hand or fold.

If nobody has entered the pot yet, you can leverage the power of your position and come in with a raise with a wide range of hands. Here’s a list of poker hands that I raise with in late position:

* Pocket pairs: 22-AA
* Suited connectors: 45s-AKs
* Any two face cards: JT, QT, QJ, AK, KJ, etc
* Suited aces: A7s +
* Suited 1-gappers: 46s, 57s, 79s, etc

That list works the best if the blinds are tight, predictable opponents. If your opponents call your raises and play back at you a lot, you need to tighten it up and stick to your stronger hands. Final Thoughts

Preflop play isn’t as cut and dry in no limit as it is in limit. You have to make adjustments based on your opponents, their stack sizes and your table image.

For the most part though, this starting guide will get you off to a good start. If you make sure to play tight from early position and aggressive from both positions, you’ll have a major advantage over your competition.

Poker Tips

Little-Known Poker Tips That Bring Big Profit


Most people tend to feel smug about what they know. Poker players are no different. "She didn't even have enough common sense not to raise with her three sixes! What did she think the guy had, aces up? Obviously he was going for a flush and he either made it or he missed it. So, why raise?" How many times have you heard comments like that? Me too. We hear them all the time. This is just the way people who have gained knowledge and are proud of it try to make their superiority known. They are seeking to elevate themselves above others. No big deal. Happens all the time. But, what I teach is that you need to think back. Way back. I frequently ask students, "When did you first realize that?" Maybe they gloat, "Oh, gosh, I realized that over 20 years ago!"


"OK," I say, "Then what were you thinking five minutes before you realized that?" And there's the point. For everything we know, there was a time five minutes earlier when we didn't know it. Some say I'm an egomaniac. I guess they're right. Maybe I could sit at the final table in life's egomania word championship. But, you know what? I wouldn't win. And the reason I wouldn't win is simply because I realize that for every concept that I have mastered and swear by, there was a long period of ignorance that preceded it.


So, let's talk about today's column. We're going to discuss things that very few players know. But after I tell you about them, they'll become part of your poker wisdom. And then you might feel smug because others don't know these things. If that happens, think back to the time, right now, when you had read to this point and no further. This was the 20th in my serious of Tuesday Session classroom lectures at Mike Caro University of Poker, Gaming, and Life Strategy. It was delivered last February and is specially enhanced for Card Player…


Little-Known Poker Tips that Bring Big Profit


1. Pause two-and-a-hand seconds before you bluff.


This is serious advice. If you bet instantly or wait too long, you might make opponents suspicious. You are likely to trigger their calling reflexes. You've heard me talk often about that "calling reflex." Most opponents want to call. They didn't come to the cardroom to be bored and throw hands away. So, they have a bias toward calling, and anything you do that seems even slightly suspicious can trigger their calling reflex.


I have carefully observed opponents in this regard for many years. While I have no conclusive scientific answer, counting mentally, "One thousand one, one thousand two, one thousand -" seems to work best before you bluff. Now, be aware that the length of time may be different for various situations and for specific opponents. No two people react precisely the same way to stimulus, but two-and-a-half seconds seems like the perfect pause against most foes. However, if you determine that an opponent already has mentally surrendered on his hand, bluffing instantly may be better. Doing so doesn't give the opponent time to reevaluate. He is prepared to fold, and you take advantage of this with an instant wager. Usually, though, an instant bet just makes opponents suspicious. Also, if you pause too long before you bluff, opponents become suspicious and are likely to call. Wait the two-and-a-half seconds. Try it. And remember, your bluff isn't likely to succeed most of the time whether you pause appropriately or not. But in limit poker games, you only need to win once in a while to justify a bluff. That's because the pots are much bigger than the wagers, making the rewards much bigger than the risks.


2. An opponent clearing his throat after betting has a medium-strong hand and almost never anything else. Often you'll hear a player (always a male) clear his throat after making a bet. This is a little-analyzed, unconscious male trait. It is a way of preparing psychologically for whatever may come. Players tend not to do this when they're bluffing. Then, they're typically quiet and unmoving, fearing that any action may trigger a call. And, if they have especially strong hands, they don't have to prepare themselves for the possibility being beaten. Thus no throat clearing.


3. Two-handed bets are more likely to be called.
Use this technique sometimes when you're sure you're betting the best hand. The twohanded action looks suspicious to most opponents and triggers their calling reflex. I have been using this technique successfully for years, but I guess I'll have to stop after blurting that out. Damn!


4. Opponents engaged in conversation who don't pause when they first look at their freshly dealt hand are likely to fold. Observe and use this information to mentally move yourself to a "later" position (with reduced opening requirements). When you know opponents waiting to act behind you won't play, you can be much more aggressive in attacking. This wins extra profit and helps your image.


When players first look at their hands and see something they like and intend to play, it is natural for them to pause and consider exactly how they will proceed. Raise? Just call? Lure players into the pot? All these questions and many more go through their minds. So, if they're carrying on a conversation, they will pause or stammer when they see a playable hand. In the absence of this pause, usually cross them off the list of possible threats and pretend you're in a later position. You can then play slightly weaker hands because not as many opponents have a chance of beating you. 5. One way to maximize your sandbagging profit is to threaten to call after
checking. Players may bluff, thinking you're insincere about your verbal remark or gesture indicating a call. If they have medium hands, they feel safer about betting them, not thinking they'll face an uncomfortable raise. But that's exactly what they'll face. By threatening to call, you've actually forced your opponents into what I call "either/or" evaluation. Either you'll call or you won't. In addition to making it seem safe for your opponents to bet marginal hands, often they may try to bluff, seeing their chances for success as a virtual coin-flip. The third possibility (and the truth), that you'll raise, seldom occurs to them.


6. Try to identify opponents who are playing at a limit above their norm. These players typically are uncomfortable. They are more likely to just call with borderline hands than to raise. They often can be bluffed. The unfamiliar, higher limit makes them among your easiest-to-beat, most predictable foes.


7. Even if you know you'll earn more (on average) if everyone passes, often you should still try to get called. How come? If you could get everyone to pass, you would. Unless you hold an unusually strong hand, there's usually more money in the pot right now - comprised of blinds, antes, and initial bets - than you can expect to earn on average (considering wins and losses) by playing to a showdown. But usually, players will call, even if you don't want that to happen. So, your biggest profit, in those cases, is usually to encourage extra calls from weak hands.


8. Caro's Great Law of Betting:
You should only bet if the value of betting is greater than the value of checking. Never forget that checking can have value as a poker weapon. It has the value of deception, and more. Checking and then calling may earn more than betting and hoping to be called. There's actually a lot more to this concept, and the reasoning gets fairly complex. But, today, just remember the big premise. Repeating: In order to justify a bet, the value of betting must be greater than the value of checking. If you begin to thing about wagering that way, you'll earn a lot more money. - Mike Caro

Poker Hand Ranking